Latest updated blog – A bit chilly for Mother’s Day this year – Nick

Plenty of rain and t-storm chances for the week ahead

Good Saturday evening, everyone. Sure enough, we started cold this morning as overnight lows dropped into the middle to upper 30s. Thankfully, it didn’t stay cold very long as we saw temperatures jump from the upper 30s at 7 AM to the upper 40s by 8 AM and lower to middle 50s by 9 AM in just a 2 hour span. We took advantage of the light southerly breeze and quiet skies today to get afternoon highs back into the middle 60s.


Even though we’re cooling down again this evening, we’re not going back into the 30s tonight. With increasing moisture raising dew points into the 40s, that’s as cool as we’ll get for the overnight and for Sunday morning. Our Mother’s Day may start off cool, but we should be able to see afternoon highs back near 60°.


We’re seeing some moisture get pulled in from the south ahead of our next cold front coming in from the northwest.


The front coming in is being driven in by an upper level wave coming out of the Northern Plains. We also note an upper level ridge trying to hold on across the western US, but that ridge will weaken as we head into the new week. As it does, it’ll ready multiple upper level waves to help keep rain and t-storm chances around for much of the week ahead.


Before we talk about the better rain chances on the way, let’s get this cold front through first. It’ll start working into our northern counties during the overnight as temperatures start to dip into the upper 40s.


As it works through, we’ll keep partly cloudy skies in place and a few showers will try to pop up in some spots. If anything develops through the night, it’ll be light with very minor accumulations staying near or under a tenth of an inch.


We’ll hold onto the chance for a few showers as we hit sunrise on your Mother’s Day as we start cool in the middle to upper 40s.


Fortunately, it doesn’t stay cool all day and the rain chances won’t be sticking around beyond the morning hours. By 8 or 9 AM, any chance for a few showers will be gone and we’ll enjoy partly sunny skies for the rest of the day. A north breeze at 5-15 mph will take over behind the front to keep things a bit chillier than normal. Still, we’ll be able to get afternoon highs back near 60° for Mother’s Day.


We’ll stay dry for Sunday evening with partly cloudy skies and temperatures trying to drop back into the upper 30s by Monday morning. However, things start to get active as soon as Monday gets underway. The backside of our cold front working through will back-build into the Rockies. On top of that, the upper levels will ready several waves to work with the front to get rain chances going. Those rounds of rain will work in during the day on Monday and continue into Tuesday with highs ranging between the lower and middle 50s.


Heading into the middle of the week, we’ll have the front out west lift through as a warm front for Wednesday. While that front gets us back into the lower 70s for afternoon highs, it’ll be another chance for t-storms across the area. Sticking with Doug’s pattern, we’ll be watching Wednesday’s t-storm chances as those could be strong to severe.


The warm front will continue to lift to the northeast as we stay ahead of the cold front for Thursday and Friday. While that means highs will start pushing toward 80° by the end of the week, the front will continue to be the focal point for additional rounds of strong to severe t-storms especially for Thursday and Saturday.


On top of all of that, the rounds of rain lining up for the week ahead could certainly add up. The rain tracker wants some bands of moderate to heavy rain to work through over the course of the week ahead and leave us with a range of rain amounts between 1″ and potentially 4″ by next Saturday.


With chances for heavy rainfall and strong to severe t-storms returning for the week ahead, we’ll definitely stay busy keeping an eye on things throughout the week. It’s May in the Four States, though. This is hardly surprising considering May is one of our more active months. Just keep checking in with us and you’ll know what to expect over the next several days. Doug has his look for the rest of May and much of June in his long range forecast down below.

Have a good night, a great Sunday and a great Mother’s Day!


Long range forecast into the middle of June:

May 17th-23rd:  A warm start to the week with mild temperatures back in for the middle of the week.  Warm temperatures will be right back in late in the week and into the weekend.  However, 3 strong systems during the week with good severe weather threats.  Sunday, Tuesday and then again by Saturday.

May 24th-30th: A good severe threat on Sunday and Monday.  Staying fairly warm through the week with more thunderstorm son Wednesday and Thursday.  Hot temperatures late in the week with a severe threat on Saturday.

May 31st-June 6th: A warm start to the week with hot temperatures through the rest of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Tuesday, Friday and Saturday.

June 7th-13th:  A warm start to the week with hot temps by mid week.  Staying fairly hot the rest of the week.  Scattered thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.

June 14th-20th:  The first half of the week will be warm with a hot finish.  Scattered storms on Tuesday and Saturday.