Latest blog – Hot & very humid again for Thursday – Nick

Relief still on the way by this weekend

Good Wednesday evening, everyone. Needless to say, today was another day where it looked nice outside. However, it didn’t feel nice with the heat and high humidity still locked in across the region. Just like yesterday, we saw temperatures start out in the middle 70s and top out in the middle 90s. While the highest number on the 36 Hour Trend graphic below shows 95° at 4 PM, Joplin Regional actually hit a high of 96° at 1:38 this afternoon. Couple that with high dew points in the middle to upper 70s, the high humidity made it feel like it was between 103° an 110° during the afternoon.


With these numbers expected to stay the same for Thursday afternoon after a brief break from the heat during the morning, that’s why we have excessive heat warnings in place across much of the area until 9 PM Thursday. Even if you’re under a heat advisory until Thursday evening, it will be another hot and very humid day across the region. This is why we declared Thursday an Alert Day across the area.


Looking at the overall weather setup, we have an area of high pressure at the surface located over the Mississippi River near the Missouri Bootheel. That was able to keep a light south breeze in place throughout the day. While the frontal system to the north will lead to overnight strong to severe t-storms in Wisconsin and other parts of the Upper Midwest, that’s the front that will bring much needed relief from the heat later on in the forecast.


Upstairs at the jet stream level, we’re still sitting underneath the upper-level ridge with the center of the ridge right over western Kansas. This setup won’t change until the ridge breaks down due to strong upper-level lows coming out of Canada late in the weekend.


While it will stay quiet across the area under mostly clear skies overnight, we’ll only get a slight break from the heat and some of the humidity as we get your Thursday morning started. Even with a light south breeze at 5-10 mph, we’ll only see lows drop back into the middle 70s.


Even with some partly sunny skies passing along during the day, we’ll waste no time going right back into the heat and high humidity throughout the afternoon. We’ll stay quiet during the day as highs push back near 96° across the entire area.


Now, the thermometer will say 96° as we head into the afternoon. When you factor in the high dew points that will still be in play (middle to upper 70s), it will make the temperatures feel as hot as 103° to 111° during the peak heating of the afternoon.


The overall picture doesn’t change for Friday. We’ll stay quiet under partly sunny skies. We’ll also stay hot and humid. While highs stay in the middle 90s, there will be a slight drop in the humidity. Despite that, the humidity will make temperatures feel like we’ll range between 99° and 107° during the afternoon.


Heading into Saturday, it’ll be another hot and humid day with highs still in the middle 90s. While much of the day will start dry, the front will start working in from the north as we work into late Saturday afternoon and into Saturday evening. It’ll start working in as the upper-level ridge shifts back to the west. As the front works in, we’ll start seeing some scattered t-storms work in late in the afternoon and certainly by the evening.


With the front working through on Sunday, we’ll see highs drop back into the middle 80s. The front will still have enough moisture to keep skies mostly cloudy and some scattered t-storms around. Behind the front, look at the upper-level setup for Monday. With an upper-level low working over Michigan and the ridge out to the west over southern California, this setup will push the jet stream back to our west. With our area back on the cooler side of the jet, we’ll enjoy lows in the middle 60s for Monday morning and afternoon highs in the middle 80s under mostly sunny skies.


With the upper-level setup showing the area in a northerly and northwesterly flow by the middle of the week, we’ll keep an eye out for any weak waves wanting to ride along the edge of the upper ridge out west. A few waves will want to try to bring an isolated t-storm or two for Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise, this setup will keep us warm with highs in the middle 80s and lower humidity compared to what we’ve seen over the past several days.


After putting up with Alert Days through Saturday due to the heat and high humidity, our patience will be rewarded with a break from the heat once we get into next week. Don’t forget that Doug has your long range forecast through August and into early September down below.

Have a good night and a great Thursday.


Next Thursday-Saturday:  Mainly in the 80s with thunderstorm chances back in by the weekend.

August 8th-14th:  The first half of the week will be hot with the second half warm with mainly 80s.  However, scattered thunderstorm chances each day.

August 15th-21st:  A warm start to the week and then a hot finish.  Isolated storms on Sunday and Monday, then again by Saturday.

August 22nd-28th:  Mainly a warm week with isolated storms Tuesday through Thursday.

August 29th-September 4th:  A warm work week but hot into the weekend.  Thunderstorm chances Sunday, Monday and Thursday.

September 5th-11th:  A hot start then back to warm the second half of the week.  Scattered storms Tuesday through Saturday.