Late Sunday PM March 10th – Rain chances not too far away

Quiet Monday before the rain chances pick up
Late Sunday PM March 10th – Rain chances not too far away

Good late Sunday evening, everyone. As advertised, it was quite cooler compare to the mild Saturday we had. After we had highs in the middle 60s Saturday, we turned quite a bit colder for this morning as lows dropped to around 30°. For the afternoon, it was a struggle to warm up because of more cloud cover that snuck in from the south. That meant highs in the lower to middle 40s across much of the area today…

Late Sunday PM March 10th – Rain chances not too far away

The cloud cover won’t result in anything for much of the area tonight. Any rain reaching the ground tonight will stay south of us on the radar below…

Why are we seeing quite a bit of persistent cloud cover tonight with rain just to our south? That’s due to a fast-moving upper-level wave passing just to our south…

Late Sunday PM March 10th – Rain chances not too far away

The cloud cover will be sticking around as we work through your Monday. Despite that, we are anticipating a bump in the thermometer for the start of the new work/school week. After we start cold in the middle 30s, we should be able to climb into the middle 50s for Monday afternoon…

Late Sunday PM March 10th – Rain chances not too far away

While Monday stays quiet, the upper-levels of the atmosphere will keep bringing moisture in with the end result being continued cloud cover. We won’t see the clouds yield any rain or t-storms until a stronger wave over the Pacific Coast starts working in…

Late Sunday PM March 10th – Rain chances not too far away

Monday night starts quiet, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see rain chances picking up by the start of the Tuesday AM drive. Once the wave out west really starts to edge closer, that will bring periods of rain for Tuesday…

Late Sunday PM March 10th – Rain chances not too far away

For Wednesday, we could see some instability mix in with our rain chances as the wave passes by to our northwest. That could result in some bouts of heavy rain and t-storms, but we’re not anticipating any severe weather for Wednesday. We’ll continue to watch Wednesday for any possible changes to that forecast…

Late Sunday PM March 10th – Rain chances not too far away

As we head into Thursday, we could see a little lull in the action to start the day. With some wrap-around moisture thinking about working back in late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, that could bring some possible showers our way during that timeframe…

Late Sunday PM March 10th – Rain chances not too far away

As for how much rain we could see out of this system, our first good look at projected amounts could range between an inch to as much as 2.5 inches. For now, any possibility of flooding looks low. However, if we can’t spread the rain chances out during this two-day period, that could change. We’ll keep an eye on this setup as well…

Late Sunday PM March 10th – Rain chances not too far away

Behind this system, we’re looking at a quiet weekend on the way. It may look nice to start, but we’ll have some cool air returning. We’ll be looking at middle 40s for Friday and Saturday before temperatures can rebound by next Sunday.

Don’t forget that Doug has your long-range forecast out through late May based on his pattern down below.

Have a good night and a great Monday!

Nick

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.

Long range forecast through Early March:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Starting mild with scattered showers on Monday and Tuesday. We could end with a little snow, but chances are low. Then again, mainly cool the rest of the week.

March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Sunday and Monday. Thunderstorms return on thursday and Friday with a slight chance for severe weather on Friday.

March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.

April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week

April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.

April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.

April 28th-May 4th: Warming up with strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of storms by the weekend.

May 5th-11th: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. Thunderstorms chances on Friday.

May 12th-18th: Mainly a warm week with slight chances for rain on Wednesday. However, thunderstorms on Friday, these could be strong to severe.

May 19th-25th: Thunderstorms, strong to severe on Sunday and Monday. Mainly a warm week with more thunderstorms on Friday.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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