Late Sunday PM February 17th – Quiet Monday before turning active again
Watching Tuesday closely
JOPLIN, Mo. — Good late Sunday evening, everyone. It took a little work, but we improved from our cloudy start this morning after dealing with areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle. We started cold in the middle to upper 20s and managed to rebound into the middle 30s this afternoon. We’ll keep things quiet but cold tonight with nothing working in on the radar below…
Monday will be our day in between storm systems. Our wave that gave us the clouds and early AM freezing drizzle is scooting off to the east. To the west, we have our next system digging into the western United States…
Before that changes things up, we’ll stay quiet for Monday. We’ll start cold with mostly clear skies and a light northwest breeze. After most areas start around 18°, we’ll go back into the middle to upper 30s for Monday afternoon under partly to mostly sunny skies…
We stay quiet for Monday night, but that’s when the clouds will really start to pick back up and return to the area. That’s an early sign of the upper wave out west and a surface system to our south getting ready to kick into gear…
Even though the main surface system (especially the low coming out of Mexico) stays to our southeast, it’s strong enough to start sending some warmer air our way. That will come into play for us as our precipitation chances pick up Tuesday. We stay quiet to start Tuesday morning out, but we’ll see signs of snow beginning to develop by the time the afternoon gets going…
Going into the rest of the afternoon, the moisture working in will result in snow chances for most areas. That will really pick up after temperatures quickly top out in the middle to upper 30s early in the afternoon. Note, however, signs of the warmer air trying to work in from the south. You can see how it’ll want to change the snow over to a mix of sleet, freezing rain and rain as it tries to work northward…
The warmer air wants to continue lifting northward up to the I-44 corridor as we work into Tuesday night. For some, the air will be warm enough to change the snow or wintry mix over to rain as we go deep into the night. For others, the cold air will remain in place for snow to continue…
By the time we head into early Wednesday morning, the system will be on the way out of here. The early AM drive Wednesday before and around sunrise could start with a little rain/snow mix still around, but we’ll be dry for the rest of Wednesday as the system continues to move on out…
As to what we can expect Tuesday, this is how things look late on this Sunday night. Areas along and northwest of Stockton Lake, Lamar, Pittsburg, Parsons and Independence can expect mainly snow from this next system. South of there, that’s the better chance of seeing a snow/sleet/freezing rain mix before the warmer air Tuesday evening starts to switch some spots over to rain…
Everyone has a shot of seeing accumulating snow out of this system. The main question that still remains is when will that warmer air start to work in and change things over from snow to a wintry mix. If the warmer air in spots arrives early, that will cut down on expected snow amounts. If it’s later, that’s just more opportunity for accumulating snow. Once we get a better idea of that and how far north the warmer air wants to go as we head into Monday, that’s when we’ll have a better idea of how much areas will see. Beyond Tuesday, we’ll have more systems to watch. Those systems could bring rain chances by Thursday and into the coming weekend. By then, temperatures should be warm enough for rain as we should climb back into the 40s on Thursday and into the 50s by the coming start of the weekend.
Don’t forget that Doug has your long-range forecast based on his pattern out through April down below. Have a good night and a great Monday!
So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.
Long range forecast through Early March:
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
Next Week: A mild start to the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday. Slight chances for snow on the back side on Wednesday. Another weak wave on Thursday with slight chances for rain and snow. Staying cold the rest of the week.
March 3rd-9th: Rain and snow chances on Sunday with a strong system working through. Staying cool most of the week with rain and snow chances returning for Tuesday and Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend.
March 10th-16th: Moderate system on Sunday and Monday with rain possibly over to snow with colder temperatures working in. Staying cold the rest of the week with a few snow showers possible on Thursday.
March 17th-23rd: Mild with showers on Monday. Cooling back down with showers continuing until Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend with rain back in for the weekend.
March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Coler for the weekend.
March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.
April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week
April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.
April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
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