Late Sunday February 24th – New work/school week starts quiet
Before we turn active again by mid-week
JOPLIN, Mo. — Good Sunday evening, everyone. As advertised, we had a nice looking Sunday all across the area. Granted, it was noticeably cooler thanks to the northwest wind behind our passing cold front. After seeing highs in the middle 60s yesterday, we saw highs sink back into the middle to upper 40s today. Our return to below normal temperatures today reflects how the month of February has been overall…
With four days to go, our February has been rather cool (if not cold) as two-thirds of the month have been below normal. We can go back above normal for a few more days ahead before we get a bit active by the middle of the week. As for tonight, we’ll have partly to mostly cloudy skies with nothing on the radar below trying to sneak in…
What will bring temperatures back above normal for the next few days? Our returning front. It came through on Saturday to bring us back into the February chill. Now, we’re seeing a warm front develop on the back side and that will lift in from the south as we go through Monday…
With that returning front bringing the south breeze back in play under partly sunny skies, we’ll have a decent Monday lining up for us. We’ll start cold but see highs climb back into the middle 50s Monday afternoon…
While we stay quiet on Monday, we’re seeing signs of the jet stream picking up again. From late this evening/early this morning, we’re seeing one wave sneaking into the northwest and another wave wanting to come out of the Pacific. On top of that, other weak waves will form and ride along the jet as the week goes on…
One weak wave will begin its approach as we work into Tuesday. While it could bring a few showers into the picture, it’ll mainly bring mostly cloudy skies back in play…
The wave out in the Pacific will start to work in on Wednesday and Thursday. Depending on how temperatures look Thursday morning, that wave could bring in a brief period of freezing rain. While that’s something we’ll continue to watch, that wave will bring mainly rain chances in for Wednesday and Thursday…
Going into the coming weekend, the wave out in the northwestern United States will start to work in. Not only will that keep rain chances in the forecast for Friday, that wave is looking to bring in much colder air for Saturday and Sunday. If moisture remains across the area going into Saturday morning and again on Sunday, we could have snow chances to watch to begin the month of March…
With quite a few waves to watch this week, we’ll stay on top of everything and keep you updated as we roll along. Don’t forget that Doug has your long-range forecast out through late May down below. Have a good night and a great Monday!
So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.
Long range forecast through Early March:
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
Next Week: This will be mainly a cool week. The first wave will be on Sunday and Monday with rain and snow chances. Another wave works in on Wednesday and Thursday, this will also give us rain and snow chances. Staying cool into the weekend.
March 10th-16th: A cool start to the week with a weak system on Sunday and Monday. This will give us slight chances for rain and snow. Mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday. Cooler for the rest of the week. Severe chances on Wednesday will be a 3 on a scale of 1-10.
March 17th-23rd: Mild with showers on Monday. Cooling back down with showers continuing until Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend with rain back in for the weekend.
March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Cooler for the weekend.
March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.
April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week
April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.
April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.
April 28th-May 4th: Warming up with strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of storms by the weekend.
May 5th-11th: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. Thunderstorms chances on Friday.
May 12th-18th: Mainly a warm week with slight chances for rain on Wednesday. However, thunderstorms on Friday, these could be strong to severe.
May 19th-25th: Thunderstorms, strong to severe on Sunday and Monday. Mainly a warm week with more thunderstorms on Friday.
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
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