Late Saturday February 23rd – Turning Cooler for Sunday

Staying quiet to start the new week out
Late Saturday February 23rd – Turning Cooler for Sunday

Good Saturday evening, everyone. We had to start our Saturday out with rain and t-storms across the area. Thankfully, nothing strong or severe came out of those rain chances. We did clear things out for the afternoon and had strong southwest winds really warm us up today. We had highs top out in the middle 60s before the northwest wind kicked in this evening. We may be turning colder, but we won’t have any threatening weather working in overnight on the radar below…

With the northwest wind taking control of the area for Sunday, we will have a quiet day to enjoy. However, we will see temperatures turn 15 to 20 degrees cooler compared to today. For the work/school week ahead of us, we’ll start quiet before some more storm systems try to get organized. Your look at the week ahead is right below…

Don’t forget that Doug has your long-range out through late May down below. Have a good night and a great Sunday!

Nick

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.

Long range forecast through Early March:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

March 3rd-9th: This will be mainly a cool week. The first wave will be on Sunday and Monday with rain and snow chances. Another wave works in on Wednesday and Thursday, this will also give us rain and snow chances. Staying cool into the weekend.

March 10th-16th: A cool start to the week with a weak system on Sunday and Monday. This will give us slight chances for rain and snow. Mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday. Cooler for the rest of the week. Severe chances on Wednesday will be a 3 on a scale of 1-10.

March 17th-23rd: Mild with showers on Monday. Cooling back down with showers continuing until Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend with rain back in for the weekend.

March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Cooler for the weekend.

March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.

April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week

April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.

April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.

April 28th-May 4th: Warming up with strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of storms by the weekend.

May 5th-11th: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. Thunderstorms chances on Friday.

May 12th-18th: Mainly a warm week with slight chances for rain on Wednesday. However, thunderstorms on Friday, these could be strong to severe.

May 19th-25th: Thunderstorms, strong to severe on Sunday and Monday. Mainly a warm week with more thunderstorms on Friday.

Doug

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dheady@koamtv.com

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