Late Saturday April 20th – Quiet & warm Easter Sunday lining up

Before t-storm chances start to return
Late Saturday April 20th – Quiet & warm Easter Sunday lining up

Good late Saturday evening, everyone. We managed to enjoy another quiet day all across the area. After a bit of a frosty start this morning, we saw temperatures warm up nicely under sunny skies and a light breeze. We saw afternoon highs climb back into the lower to middle 70s today, which is where we should be at for this part of April. With no big storm systems working in tonight, we’ll stay nice and quiet again on the radar below…

With another quiet day lined up, your Easter Sunday is looking great. It’ll also be a warm Easter this time around with the south wind picking up throughout the day. We won’t set any records for Sunday, but we will see highs back above normal. After the holiday, we’ll focus our attention to returning t-storm chances as the new work/school week gets underway. Your latest look at the week ahead is right below…

Don’t forget that you can see how the next several weekss are shaping up with Doug’s long range forecast. He has the forecast all the way out through the middle of June, including when we’ll have additional severe weather chances return to the area.

Have a good night and a great Sunday!

Nick

Long range forecast through Middle June:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Numbers each week is my severe weather index. The closer to 0 the better. The higher the number the severe weather chances are much greater!

Next Week: Mild to start the week with thunderstorms Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday just showers. Mild the second half of the week with more thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. Monday (3), Friday (1).

April 28th-May 4th: Mild the first half of the week with warm temperatures the second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. More storms on Thursday and Friday. Sunday (2), Monday (3), Thursday (6), Friday (1).

May 5th-11th: Mainly a mild week with scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday (2), Thursday (2).

May 12th-18th: A warm week with thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Then another system works in for the weekend. Sunday, Monday and Tuesday (2), (4) on Saturday.

May 19th-25th: Showers to start the week on Sunday and Monday with mild temperatures. Warming up the second half of the week with Thunderstorms around Thursday. Thursday (4).

May 26th- June 1st: Mainly a warm week with thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and then showers on Tuesday. Another strong system rolls in on Thursday and Friday. Sunday (4), Monday (7), Thursday (2), Friday (6).

June 2nd-8th: A warm week with storms on Sunday and Monday. A fast moving system back in on Friday. Sunday (4), Monday (4), Friday (2).

June 9th-15th: A hot start to the week with cooler temperatures for the middle of the week with a storm system working through. This will give us some thunderstorms on Tuesday. Warming back up late in the week. Tuesday (2).

June 16th-22nd: A warm to hot week with storms on Sunday and Monday, then again by the weekend. Monday (3), Friday (3), Saturday (2).

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

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Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.