Late Monday March 18th – Rain chances knocking on the door

Returning to a bit of an active pattern
Late Monday March 18th – Rain chances knocking on the door

Good Monday evening, everyone. After enjoying a nice and quiet weekend, Mother Nature was kind enough to give us a repeat to start the new work/school week out. We had to start cold once again with lows in the upper 30s, but we made the most of the sunshine today. That got us back into the upper 50s for highs this afternoon. Cloud cover has been picking up late this evening, but any rain on the radar below should stay away for tonight…

For many of you, Tuesday is looking like a dry day with the south wind kicking into gear during the afternoon. That being said, our next system will start working in and bring in some rain chances very late in the day and into Tuesday evening. On top of that, this isn’t the only storm system we’re watching. Your latest forecast is right below…

Don’t forget that Doug has long-range forecast out through late May down below. You’ll find when to expect storm systems for this spring and if those systems will have a severe threat. Have a good night and a great Tuesday!


Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.

Long range forecast through Early March:


Next Week: Showers and t-storms stick around early in the week with a few weak waves rolling through. Cooler temperatures for the middle of the week with another storm system with thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. We will have a slight severe threat on Friday.

March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.

April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week

April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.

April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.

April 28th-May 4th: Warming up with strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of storms by the weekend.

May 5th-11th: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. Thunderstorms chances on Friday.

May 12th-18th: Mainly a warm week with slight chances for rain on Wednesday. However, thunderstorms on Friday, these could be strong to severe.

May 19th-25th: Thunderstorms, strong to severe on Sunday and Monday. Mainly a warm week with more thunderstorms on Friday.




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