Keeping warm & dry for our Monday – Nick

Let's enjoy the warm and dry air before the heat eventually returns

Good early Monday morning, everyone. After putting up with the summer heat and humidity for almost the past 2 weeks, we FINALLY got our cold front to give us some rain and t-storms to cool things down. While we did have a couple random severe t-storm warnings late Saturday night and early Sunday morning, the vast majority of those t-storms stayed below severe levels. For areas that really saw the rain come on down (especially in southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri north of 126), we had radar estimated rain amounts push between 1 and 3 inches on the high end. On the average, those that saw rain had around half an inch before we dried out Sunday afternoon.


Not only did the front give us some rain chances, it lived up to its name by giving us a much needed cool-down. After we saw highs top out at 100 at Joplin Regional on Saturday, the rain and the northerly breeze behind the front dropped our Sunday AM lows into the upper 60s. While we bounced back and forth between partly sunny and mostly cloudy skies for the afternoon, it kept highs in the lower 80s across much of the area. That’s a noticeable 20 degree drop that I will never complain about.


Looking at our setup, it’s a nicer setup compared to the past few days. Behind our cold front, we have high pressure at the surface in control as we get this new work week started. In addition, the front squashed our upper-level ridge for now to help make sure temperatures stay fairly nice for the next few days.


Even though we had partly to mostly cloudy skies to start the early morning hours out, enough dry air is in place for lows to drop back near 60 to start this morning out. With partly sunny skies and an easterly/northeasterly breeze through the day, we’ll have temperatures climb into the middle 70s by lunchtime and into the lower 80s for the afternoon.


Tuesday is looking great as well. With mostly clear to partly cloudy skies to start our Tuesday out, lows will drop back into the lower 60s once again. After sunrise, mostly sunny skies and an easterly breeze turning a bit more southeasterly during the day will send highs back into the middle 80s.


While Wednesday stays quiet and mostly sunny with highs in the upper 80s, another upper-level ridge will start working into the Southern Plains and the Southern Rockies. While it won’t be on top of us by the end of the week, you can count on this to send the jet back to the north and allow highs in the 90s to return starting on Thursday.


By the time we get into the start of the 4th of July Weekend (if you can believe that’s fast approaching), the jet will find itself right on top of the region with us just on the warmer side. While we’ll watch for a few waves of energy along the jet, we’ll also have another frontal system try to come our way for the weekend. You can see what the end result of that one-two combo will be down below.


We aren’t seeing this setup leading to a washout of a weekend. We’re expecting a few isolated t-storms for Friday and Saturday before the chances become a little more numerous by Sunday. For the 4th, we’re thinking there could be a few isolated t-storms while most areas will stay dry. As for temperatures, we’ll have a hot Friday with highs in the lower 90s. We’ll expect highs in the upper 80s to near 90 for the rest of the holiday weekend. Don’t forget that Doug’s long-range forecast is below.


July 4th-July 9th: Hot for Sunday before we stay warm for the 4th, Tuesday and Wednesday. Then, hot temperatures return for the rest of the week. Slight t-storm chances for Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.

July 10th-July 16th: Hot temperatures this week. Slight t-storm chances Tuesday, Friday and Saturday.

July 17th-July 23rd: Warm for Sunday and Monday before hot temperatures return for the rest of the week. Slight t-storm chances Sunday, Wednesday and Saturday.

July 24th-July 30th: With the exception of a warm Thursday and Friday, hot for the week. Slight t-storm chances Sunday through Wednesday.

July 31st-August 6th: Hot for much of the week before we back down to warm temperatures by Friday and Saturday. Slight t-storm chances Monday through Friday.