Hot Monday before our next front brings in some changes – Nick

Watching t-storm chances and cooler air with this front
Monplanner

Good early Monday morning, everyone. We just wrapped up or final weekend of the summer season and we kept things on the warm side across the region. After we saw highs around 90 on Saturday, we started Sunday out in the upper 60s before we saw highs bounce back near 89.

36hrtrend

Let’s break down our weather setup. We had a southerly breeze in place yesterday with no direct features at the surface impacting our weather. Our focus at the surface is purely on the next cold front to our northwest. While it may look like it’s still quite a distance away, it will start working in later today.

Surfacemap

The jet stream setup has undergone quite a bit of a change since we started the weekend out. On Friday, we had an upper-level ridge out to the west. With that gone away and an upper-level ridge to our east, the strong upper-level low out in Montana will be able to start sending the front and the shifting jet our way.

Jetsetup

Ahead of the wave and the approaching front, some of our western areas could see partly cloudy skies sneak in by the time we get the morning drive underway. Not only that, the Future Track is trying to hint at a few showers along the Kansas Turnpike. While the slimmest chance for a few showers exists in our western counties closer to the Turnpike, most spots will be dry this morning as lows drop back near 70.

Monam

The front will work through central Kansas as we head into the afternoon. As it does, the southerly wind here will pickup throughout the day. With partly sunny skies and a south breeze at 10-20 (gusts near 25 mph) during the afternoon, we’ll have temperatures quickly warm up. After starting the afternoon out with temperatures in the middle 80s, we’ll see highs top out in the lower 90s this afternoon. While much of the day will be dry, note the front shifting the wind out of the northwest in our far northwestern counties. The front will try to spark a few isolated showers and t-storms as we get late into the afternoon.

Monaftn

We’re still expecting the better chances for scattered showers and t-storms with this front to pick up as we get into this evening. You can see how the Future Track wants to show an uptick in activity by 7 PM right below.

Mon7pm

Once the scattered t-storm chances pick up this evening, they’ll continue into the night with some perhaps on the strong side. While I don’t see a big severe threat, any t-storms that can develop along or just ahead of the front could be capable of some small hail and some minor wind gusts. You can see how by 11 PM, though, that the vast majority of the t-storms will be undercut by the cold front. With that activity on the backside the front, we won’t see any severe threats as we head into the overnight hours.

Mon11pm

That being said, the chances for rain and t-storms will continue as we head into early Tuesday morning. As the northerly wind kicks in behind the front, though, you can see how temperatures will respond by dropping quite a bit overnight.

Tue3am

With the bulk of the rain chances out of the region and mostly cloudy skies to start the day out behind the front, we’ll have lows start around 61 across much of the region.

Tue7am

In terms of how much rain we could see with the passing front, it looks as though the heavier accumulations will be in central Missouri. Around here, our expected rain amounts before the morning drive Tuesday should range between a tenth of an inch and half an inch across the region.

Futurerain

Even with skies turning partly sunny (if not mostly sunny in some spots) during the day, the northerly breeze behind the front will continue to bring mild air into the region. That means we’ll only have highs topping out in the lower 70s for the final day of the summer season.

Tueaftn

If you’re curious about how we look to start fall out on Wednesday, the jet stream setup below paints a very nice picture. With the jet stream to our southwest and low humidity in place under mostly sunny skies, Tuesday morning may actually start off on a cool note with low around 49. With the humidity low and the north breeze staying light, we’ll have highs top out around 73 for Wednesday afternoon.

Wedjet

While we’ll stay mostly sunny and a bit warmer for Thursday with highs in the upper 70s, the jet stream by the coming weekend wants to come back into play. You can see how another upper-level ridge wants to build into the Central and Southern Plains by Saturday below. Even with partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures will head back into warm territory with highs in the middle 80s for Friday and Saturday before highs head back near 87 on Sunday. Even though the first weekend of fall looks warm, at least we’ll keep things dry.

Satjet

Have a great Monday!

Nick