Hot & humid again for our Thursday – Nick

T-storm chances set to return fairly soon

Good Wednesday evening, everyone. Today was certainly another hot and humid day across the area thanks to our upper-level ridge in control. With the official high of 90° at Joplin Regional, we tied the record set back in 1963. This same setup stays in place for another day while we wait for our next front to the west and northwest to head our way.


As long as our stubborn upper-level ridge is in place once again for Thursday, we’ll start off on another mild note with lows in the upper 60s to near 70° in the morning. With mostly sunny skies during the day and a light south breeze, we’ll get highs back near 90° once again.


With highs near 90° and the humidity in place for the day ahead, we’ll have feels like temperatures push between the lower and upper 90s during the peak heating of the day.


While the day and much of Thursday evening will be dry, the upper-level ridge will start breaking down. That will allow our next front to head our way and bring some decaying t-storm chances into parts of southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma after 2 AM Friday. Some could be strong to possibly low-grade severe. Otherwise, it will be mild again with lows dropping back into the upper 60s.


Even with the front coming in, we’re expecting a little dry time late in the morning and early in the afternoon. Ahead of the front, it will be warm (but a bit cooler) with highs in the middle 80s across the area. Once we get past 2 in the afternoon, the front will work with the warmth, humidity and instability in place to get scattered t-storms to develop.


We’re expecting the t-storm chances to continue into Friday evening and into part of the overnight hours as we get into early Saturday morning.


While we aren’t expecting any of our AM t-storm chances on Friday to be severe, there will be a better chance for a low severe threat for Friday afternoon and evening. The general timing for any t-storms to turn strong to severe will be between 2 PM and 11 PM. We’re expecting mainly a hail and wind risk with the strongest of those t-storms. Even with all the threats on the low side, we’ll keep an eye on the setup and make any adjustments over the next few days.


While the front passes through the region for the rest of the weekend, it will actually stall out just to the south of the area. Since the front will still be close by, we’ll watch for any subtle upper-level waves that will ride along the jet. While you can see Saturday staying mainly dry, we’ll watch for a few isolated t-storms on Sunday. We’ll also plan on highs topping out in the middle 80s for both Saturday and Sunday.


With more subtle waves riding above our stalled out front, we’ll keep isolated t-storm chances in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday of next week. With this setup, we’ll plan on highs in the lower 80s for Monday and Tuesday.


Once we get past a dry Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s, we’ll see t-storm chances return by next Thursday and a severe threat return for next weekend. Doug updated the long range forecast for you all. He has a fresh look at how we look through the rest of the month and through the middle of June. That outlook does include when we could have severe weather chances head our way. Have a good night and a great Wednesday!


May 19th-21st:  Mild to warm temperatures for the rest of the week. T-storms for Thursday through Saturday with a severe threat for Friday and Saturday.

May 22nd-28th: Warm for the first half of the week. Mild Thursday and Friday before we warm back up Saturday. Watching a severe threat with our t-storms Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Slight t-storm chances Wednesday before another severe threat returns Saturday.

May 29th-June 4th:  Mild Sunday before we warm up for the rest of the week. Slight t-storm chances Sunday before a severe threat returns with t-storms Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm temperatures all week long. Slight t-storm chances on Monday. Watching a severe threat with t-storms on Wednesday. T-storms on Thursday followed by a dry Friday and another severe threat with Saturday’s t-storms.

June 12th-18th:  Warm Sunday followed by a hot period Monday through Wednesday. Warm for the remainder of the week. T-storm chances with a severe threat Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. A higher severe threat with t-storms on Thursday before we dry out for the weekend.