Hot but dry for the 4th of July this year – Nick

We have quite a hot and humid stretch lined up for this week, though

Good early Monday morning, everyone. It turned out to be a bit of a busy Sunday in terms of our weather. While the day started out mainly dry, we had t-storms develop in southwestern Missouri early in the afternoon and developed back into our corners of Kansas and Oklahoma. According to radar estimates, those rain chances left behind an average of 0.4″ across the area. Heavier pockets of rain (between 2 and 4 inches) did result in some brief flash flooding and some minor flooding in parts of southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas.

Sunrain

It was a good thing that those rain chances popped up as they did. After we had lows in the lower to middle 70s Sunday morning, highs quickly jumped into the lower to middle 90s across the entire area. Once those t-storms developed, a good number of us saw temperatures quickly drop into the 70s and 80s. Unfortunately, our weather focus will shift from rain chances to increasing heat and humidity that will result in heat advisories for much of this week.

Heatadv

There’s a simple explanation for this change in our weather setup. The front that sat on top of us for the past few days has lifted back to our northeast. Combine that with the upper-level ridge starting to build back in, this one-two punch is setting us up for a hot and humid stretch.

Surfacemap

While it will be hot for our 4th of July this time around, we’ll stay quiet under mostly to partly sunny skies throughout the day. Once we get past our warm start in the middle 70s this morning, we’ll push into the lower 90s at the noon hour before highs push near 98° this afternoon.

4thfcst

Combine the rain we saw today with the additional humidity with the returning ridge, feels like temperatures will range between 101° and 107° this afternoon.

Monfeels

For this evening, we’ll keep quiet under partly sunny skies to start the evening and mostly clear skies after sunset. However, it will still be hot to start the evening out before we drop back into the middle 80s by 10 o’clock tonight. At least we’ll stay dry for all the cookouts, firework displays and all outdoor activities.

4thevening

With mostly sunny skies locked in for Tuesday, we’ll go from lows in the upper 70s to highs back in the upper 90s across the area.

Tueaftn

Just like today, the humidity on Tuesday will make feels like temperatures range between 101° and 107° during the afternoon.

Tuefeels

If you aren’t a fan of July heat and humidity, the upper-levels won’t be so kind to you this week. The upper-level ridge will center itself across northeastern Texas through the middle of the week. While it will keep us quiet under partly to mostly sunny skies through Friday this week, this will push highs into the lower triple digits Wednesday through Friday. On top of that, the humidity will push heat indices close to 110° for each of those afternoons.

Ridgemidweek

By Saturday, we have a chance for the ridge to break down a little and allow the jet stream to return closer to the region. That should bring a frontal boundary nearby and bring in a chance for some isolated t-storms. Even with that, it will still remain hot on Saturday with highs in the upper 90s.

Satjet

We’ll wrap up next weekend on a dry and hot note with highs back near 100° across the area. If you’re curious about how we look for the rest of July and for much of August, Doug has your updated long range forecast down below.

Nick

July 11th-July 16th: Hot for much of the week before we drop back into warm territory on Friday and Saturday. Slight t-storm chances Tuesday through Thursday. We’ll hold on to slight rain chances for Friday and Saturday as we watch for a tropical system to bring some Gulf moisture our way.

July 17th-July 23rd: Mainly a hot week (with the exception of a warm Sunday and Friday). Slight t-storm chances Sunday, Wednesday and Thursday.

July 24th-July 30th: Mainly a hot week. While we’ll have slight t-storm chances for Monday, we’ll keep an eye on the Gulf that could bring some moisture our way on Friday.

July 31st-August 6th: Another hot week lined up. Slight t-storm chances Monday through Saturday.

August 7th-August 13th: Aside from a hot Sunday and Saturday, mainly warm this week. We’ll watch for slight t-storm chances on Sunday and Thursday.

August 14th-August 20th: Hot for much of the week before we head into a warm Saturday. We’ll watch for slight t-storm chances Wednesday through Saturday.