Strong storm system moves through the 4-States

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We made it through another week.  The weather has been fantastic all week (minus the wind).  However, a big storm system is working into the area and will really change our weather up over the next 24 hours.  So lets dive in.  We have a Flash Flood Watch.  We also have a Winter Storm Watch for areas north of I-44.  I do think all of us will be put under some type of winter weather advisory.  Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase through the morning hours.  These will be scattered, but could produce some good rains in the heavier pockets of storms.  Here is a look at the late morning.

Showers and thunderstorms really pick up during the afternoon hours.  Some of these storm could be strong to severe.

We all have a threat for strong to severe storms.  The main time for the severe threat will be from 2pm-9pm.

Threats:  large hail, winds over 60 mph, flash flooding, also a tornado threat.  The tornado threat is in the low category, but definitely still there.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see a few spin up tornadoes.  Very heavy rains will continue into the evening hours.  Here is a look at our rain potential.

After the heaviest rains work out mainly after 9pm, we will transition from west to east over to freezing drizzle and freezing rain.  We could have a few pockets of heavy freezing rain at times.  This could become a very fast problem on the trees, power lines and roads.  The good news is, I think we will transition over to sleet pretty quickly.  Pockets of freezing drizzle will continue into the morning hour of Saturday.  Here is a look at ice potential.

If we get 1/4-1/2″ of ice, we are going to have some issues.  We will most likely hit a little bit of a lull early on Saturday morning.  As the main upper level wave rolls in we will see the sleet picking up between 7-9am.  This is really going to come down.  We can’t rule out some thundersleet or snow.  Remember, 1″ of sleet is about the same as 5″ of snow.  Sleet is also worse on the roads as it compacts to the pavement and is hard to plow.  Here is a look at Saturday morning.

As we work into late morning, we will all transition over to about a 3 hour period of moderate snow.

 

The faster we switch over to snow, the more we will have.  If we hang with sleet to long, then it will be lower amounts as the sleet compacts into the ground.  Here is what I am thinking on amounts.

I am going 1-3″ along and south of I-44 and into NE OK due to the fact we will have more sleet.  On the KS side and farther west in NE OK, there will be more snow than sleet, so the amounts go up into the 2-5″ range.  Now of course I will have to fine tune this over the next 24 hours.  But do prepare for severe weather threat and winter weather on the back side.  Most of this will be out of here by mid afternoon on Saturday.  It will be very cold, staying into the 20s through the day.  So we will have issues on the roads into Sunday.  Temperatures will try to get above freezing on Sunday, so hopefully the roads will be in good shape.  Take a look at my long range forecast below.

Doug

Long range forecast through late February:

Next Week: Chilly start but warming up  the first half of the week.  We do have a couple week systems that could give us a few showers late Sunday and then again on Tuesday and Wednesday.  We need to watch a system Thursday night and Friday that will give us some wintry weather.  Looks like a rain snow mix at this time and then a transition over to rain by Saturday.

January 19th – 25th:  Rain and snow chances on Sunday with our storm system.  Cold on Monday, but should be dry.  Rain and snow chances back in on Tuesday.  Then cold the rest of the week with another shot for rain and snow on Saturday.

January 26th – February 1st: Warming up early in the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Colder with snow chances on Wednesday.  Staying cool the rest of the week with rain chances on Saturday.

February 2nd-8th:  A cool start but mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday, we could end with a little snow by Friday.

February 9th-15th:  A cool first half of the week with slight chances for rain on Monday and Tuesday.  A bigger system with rain and snow chances on Friday.

February 16th-22nd:  Mainly a cool week with rain and snow chances on Sunday and then again on Thursday and Friday.

February 23rd-29th:  A mild start but a cold finish to the week.  Rain and snow chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mainly dry and cool the rest of the week.

February:  Very active and cold middle of the month with several shots for snow!

#headypattern

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dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

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