Friday Night Blog: February gets interesting. Month Long Forecast.
Bit of an active week ahead of us as well
Good early Monday morning, everyone. We had a bit of an unusual weekend to start the month of February out. Normally, we should have highs in the middle to upper 40s. We spent our Saturday and Sunday with a good south breeze to send temperatures into the lower to middle 60s for afternoon highs. Hopefully, you all had a chance to enjoy it because Mother Nature will send some chillier air our way today with a proper return to winter later in the week. We’re starting the overnight quiet on the radar below…
However, we have our next cold front working in from the northwest…
Along with that, in the upper levels of the atmosphere, we have a quick wave passing to our north tonight with another wave waiting in the Pacific Northwest…
The wave passing to our north will interact with our incoming cold front to change our weather up for Monday. The day is starting off with early morning highs in the lower 60s…
Ahead of the approaching cold front, enough moisture seems to be in place for scattered showers to be a possibility as the AM commute to work and school gets underway…
Any possible rain chances move out late Monday morning as the cold front passes through. Even though we turn partly sunny by the afternoon, the north wind will kick in and cause temperatures to drop throughout the day. We should have temperatures during the afternoon dropping into the lower 50s…
We may start our Monday night out on a quiet note, but cloud cover will be back on the increase as some upper level energy passes nearby. With temperatures looking to fall into the 30s by Tuesday morning, there may be enough moisture in place to result in patchy drizzle. For any areas that flirt with the freezing mark, some freezing drizzle could be possible going into early Tuesday morning. Any change in temperatures, depending on how far south the cold punch of air goes, could mean the difference between drizzle and freezing drizzle. So, we’ll keep an eye on that setup going into Tuesdya morning…
Going into the rest of Tuesday and Wednesday, we’ll have our weather controlled by that front returning from the south and the upper wave out west. That will keep rain chances in the forecast for both those days. Heading into Thursday, we’ll have rain chances to start before that main upper wave begins to pass by. It will bring colder air in here on Thursday. Depending on how much moisture is remaining as temperatures drop, the possibility for a wintry mix on Thursday is possible…
After our chance for rain and wintry precipitation Thursday, we’ll have a quiet but cold Friday to kick off the coming weekend. We may stay quiet for Saturday, but clouds will increase before another system tries to work in by next Sunday.
Don’t forget that Doug has your long-range forecast out through April down below.
Have a great Monday, everyone!
So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.
Long range forecast through Early March:
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
Next Week: Mainly a cool week with snow chances on Sunday. A weak system on Tuesday with give us slight chances for showers and snow showers. A bigger system on Friday and Saturday with rain and snow chances.
February 17th-24th: Another cold week with a moderate system on Tuesday with rain and snow chances. A weak system on Thursday with a few snow showers.
February 25th-March 2nd: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. A few showers on Monday with a big storm system brewing for the weekend.
March 3rd-9th: Rain and snow chances on Sunday with a strong system working through. Staying cool most of the week with rain and snow chances returning for Tuesday and Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend.
March 10th-16th: Moderate system on Sunday and Monday with rain possibly over to snow with colder temperatures working in. Staying cold the rest of the week with a few snow showers possible on Thursday.
March 17th-23rd: Mild with showers on Monday. Cooling back down with showers continuing until Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend with rain back in for the weekend.
March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Coler for the weekend.
March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.
April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week.
April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.
April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
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