Friday Night Blog: February gets interesting. Month Long Forecast.

Mild before winter eventually returns
Friday Night Blog:  February gets interesting.  Month Long Forecast.

Good early Sunday morning, everyone. This is winter. We’re in early February. We should be seeing highs in the middle 40s this early in the month. It certainly didn’t feel cold yesterday with highs pushing into the lower 60s. Despite dealing with quite a bit of cloud cover, we managed that nice warm up because of a good south breeze we had during the day. So far, the early morning is staying quiet with not a lot showing up on the radar below…

Even though we’ve been quiet this early in the morning, the south breeze still present is trying to bring in some additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. On top of that, we still have a very weak upper-level wave passing over us…

Friday Night Blog:  February gets interesting.  Month Long Forecast.

With this setup, I would not be surprised if we had a random shower or two very early this morning. Otherwise, today will be a similar repeat of what happened yesterday. Even with mostly cloudy skies again, pockets of sunshine and a stout south breeze will ensure another mild day for us. We’re looking at high temperatures today topping out in the middle 60s…

Friday Night Blog:  February gets interesting.  Month Long Forecast.

As to what we’re keeping an eye on beyond another mild and breezy Sunday, we look off to the west…

Friday Night Blog:  February gets interesting.  Month Long Forecast.

We have two upper level lows to watch that want to come out of the Pacific Ocean. The first one coming out of California will be passing to our north as we go into Monday morning. As it passes by, it could have enough moisture and lift to bring some showers for your Monday morning. After the chance for some Monday AM rain, we stay quiet and partly sunny for the rest of Monday…

Friday Night Blog:  February gets interesting.  Month Long Forecast.

The second low out west will give us better shots for rain and some wintry weather later on in the week. It digs into the Desert Southwest going into Tuesday and Wednesday, but it will still be able to send rain chances our way…

Friday Night Blog:  February gets interesting.  Month Long Forecast.

Then, things could get a bit interesting by the time we roll into Thursday and Friday. With the way things look, the wave will start to work toward the area by that timeframe. As it does, it not only ramps up our chances for precipitation. It will also start to bring in colder air. That means what starts as rain could turn to freezing rain and sleet as temperatures drop Thursday…

Friday Night Blog:  February gets interesting.  Month Long Forecast.

With any leftover moisture on Friday, we could be starting the day out with a mix of sleet and snow. After that, Friday afternoon looks dry and we should also stay quiet for most of this coming Saturday. With those chances for wintry weather still several days out, we have plenty of time to watch this and see how it will unfold. Until then, let’s enjoy a few more mild early February days before we head back into the winter chill.

Don’t forget that Doug has your long-range forecast out through April down below.

Have a great Sunday, everyone!

Nick

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.

Long range forecast through Early March:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

February 10th-16th: Mainly a cool week with snow chances on Sunday. A weak system on Tuesday with give us slight chances for showers and snow showers. A bigger system on Friday and Saturday with rain and snow chances.

February 17th-24th: Another cold week with a moderate system on Tuesday with rain and snow chances. A weak system on Thursday with a few snow showers.

February 25th-March 2nd: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. A few showers on Monday with a big storm system brewing for the weekend.

March 3rd-9th: Rain and snow chances on Sunday with a strong system working through. Staying cool most of the week with rain and snow chances returning for Tuesday and Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend.

March 10th-16th: Moderate system on Sunday and Monday with rain possibly over to snow with colder temperatures working in. Staying cold the rest of the week with a few snow showers possible on Thursday.

March 17th-23rd: Mild with showers on Monday. Cooling back down with showers continuing until Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend with rain back in for the weekend.

March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Coler for the weekend.

March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.

April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week.

April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.

April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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