Friday Morning Blog: What happened to winter? What about this month?

What happened to winter? What about this month?

Good Friday morning!  I hope you guys are enjoying the first week of January.  Mine has been pretty good, just working away.  I have been going through the Heady Pattern like crazy tonight.  Actually, it is Friday morning and I am still at work from Thursday’s shift b/c I dive in and can’t get out of looking at it.  This is a crazy weird interesting pattern.  It is still the same pattern that produced arctic air back in November.  But now, the past two weeks, we can’t get any arctic air.  We haven’t had true arctic air in a long time.  Why?  It is the Arctic Oscillation.  When the AO is positive, it keeps all of the arctic air up north.  When it swing negative, that is when it lets the arctic air loose.  So, our pattern hasn’t it changed, we are still getting storm systems when we are suppose to.  However, some of the snow makers from that past give us rain if that AO can’t tilt in our favor.  It looks to stay positive for at least the next two weeks.  But then we go through a crazy stretch of the pattern with numerous storm systems.  If we can get it to tilt negative, we will get a couple big snows.  I do think it will go negative for at least two weeks later this month and in February.  If we can get that, we will be in good shape.  All I want is one good snow.  We also have one other problem.  Storms systems in this pattern love to mature over us and just east.  Just like the one that is going through now.

So once they pass by they get their act together.  This is just part of the pattern which makes it a little harder to get a ton of precip.  Good news is, we won’t see near as much rain this spring and fall.  However, this also means we will have a heck of severe weather set-up in the spring.  So it goes both ways.  This system will continue to push east and give us a little morning drizzle and a little cooler the next couple of days.  However, back in the lower 50s on Sunday.  We have a system that will pass to our south on Monday and Tuesday.  I will keep it dry for now.  The next bigger one I am watching is next Thursday and Friday.

Again notice how it matures east of us, but gives us a shot at some wintry weather.  Okay, updated long range forecast is below.


Long range forecast through late next January:

Next Week: A cool start to the week with a system passing to our south.  I am going to keep Monday and Tuesday dry for now, but watching it.  A bigger system works in late Thursday and into Friday.  This should give us showers and a chances to go over to snow on Friday.

January 12th – 18th: Mainly a cool week with a system with rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Another system works in on Wednesday with also rain and snow chances.  The rest of the week looks good with moderating temperatures for the weekend.

January 19th – 25th:  Rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday with our next storm system.  Cool temperatures through the middle of the week.  Warming up late in the week with rain and snow chances back in by Friday and Saturday.

January 26th – February 1st: A mild start to the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Cool the rest of the week and mainly dry.

February:  Very active and cold middle of the month with several shots for snow!



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