Friday AM Blog: Yet another winter storm working in!

Maybe snow instead of ice
Friday AM Blog:  Yet another winter storm working in!

Good Friday morning! We made it through another week. They keep flying by and it is March! Here in a blink I am going to be Christmas shopping again. I was hoping to go to KC this weekend back home and see some high school buddies. But now with this storm system coming in, I may have to stick around to see if we can get some snow out of this thing.

Today: Looks pretty good. A lot of clouds but temperatures will sore well into the 40s which it pretty good after the past few days.

Take a look at the radar below.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy but back into the 40s for highs. However, showers will start to develop during the evening hours. Temperatures will start to drop through the overnight hours and into Sunday morning. So lets look at this next wave. This is a fast moving and actually pretty weak wave. When in rolled through during the last cycle on January 11th, it did become a nice little wave that gave us rain over to snow. The cycle before (remember 51ish day cycle) on November 21st, it was very weak and just passed on by. The cycle before that, October 1st, it was a little stronger but still weak. This time it will be fast and weak again, but enough moisture to give us some wintry weather. Take a look at the wave.

Friday AM Blog:  Yet another winter storm working in!

Showers win increase Saturday evening.

Friday AM Blog:  Yet another winter storm working in!

This is wave is trying to develop on Saturday evening. You can see the surface low west of Texas, however, the new surface low is developing north of Dallas. This will start to get the gulf moisture going for Saturday night and Sunday. Rain will switch to a bit of freezing rain, then sleet and over to snow by morning.

Friday AM Blog:  Yet another winter storm working in!

Snow should last through the morning hours and then push out by the early afternoon.

Friday AM Blog:  Yet another winter storm working in!

As this fast moving wave works on shore in California over the next 24 hours, we will get very accurate data on how this system will react. As of now, we have to go with what is the best prospect. As of right now here are the amounts I am going to forecast.

Friday AM Blog:  Yet another winter storm working in!

As the temperatures drop, our snow ratios will rise to 15:1 and probably 18:1. This simply means it becomes a very dry snow and piles up. I will keep you updated and we will see if we need to up or lower amounts later today. I will keep you updated.

#headypattern

-Doug

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.

Long range forecast through Early March:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: A very cold start to the week, especially if we have a snow pack. Finally, we will warm up the second half of the week. Showers on Thursday and then again on Saturday.

March 10th-16th: A cold start to the week with rain and snow chances on Sunday. Warming up for the middle of the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday. These could be strong to severe, so we need to watch it. Mild the rest of the week with rain chances again by the weekend.

March 17th-23rd: A cool start to the week with some showers. Mild temperatures return for the second half of the week with showers on Wednesday and Thursday.

March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Cooler for the weekend.

March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.

April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week

April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.

April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.

April 28th-May 4th: Warming up with strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of storms by the weekend.

May 5th-11th: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. Thunderstorms chances on Friday.

May 12th-18th: Mainly a warm week with slight chances for rain on Wednesday. However, thunderstorms on Friday, these could be strong to severe.

May 19th-25th: Thunderstorms, strong to severe on Sunday and Monday. Mainly a warm week with more thunderstorms on Friday.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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