Friday AM Blog: Yet another storm system working in!
More rain, long range Heady Pattern
Good Friday morning! We have made it through another crazy week. I will admit, I have enjoyed all of the crazy memes of me this week with our wild weather, lol. It has been a long but very short week. I am ready for the weekend. I am trying to paint the master bedroom. My cheap butt bought the paint the was a little cheaper instead of buying the 8 dollar more expensive one. So I have to do two coats instead of one coat. When will I learn? Okay, let hit it! Oh, first off, remember you can always FB me at meteorologist Doug Heady and like my page and ask me any questions about the weather. Lets cover what is coming up next.
This system: Today and Saturday with showers and rain.
Weaker system next Wednesday: Rain but could be mixed with a little winter weather.
Stronger systems: Next Saturday and the following week on the 5th and 6th.
These are what we will be looking at the next couple of weeks.
Take a look at the radar below.
We will have some scattered showers this morning and a random shower this afternoon. Here is a look at mid morning.
However, the main system will kick out on Saturday. So, showers will increase later tonight into tomorrow morning. Lets look at this system. Here is the upper level maps. You can see how this system is going to track. The purple line is the Jet Stream.
Now, this system is right on track with the Heady Pattern. It showed up on September 23rd, November 13th, January 3rd, and tomorrow. Remember, we are in a 51-52 day cycle. So it will repeat 51-52 day from Saturday. Let me do that math, that would be around April 15th. Oh, remember, your severe weather forecast is below. I will also put out the hurricane forecasts for you here soon. I have the locations and dates already figured out for this summer and fall. Let’s go back a cycle to January 3rd.
Very similar! It is some what cut-off from the main Jet Stream like it will be this time. However, the past two cycles it has rotated just a hair farther south. However, the past two cycles it didn’t have as much cold air b/c it was cut-off farther south. The Arctic Oscillation which really controls our arctic air was positive all three times like it is this time. So it will have a small core of cold air. Lets go back another cycle to November 13th.
Again, you can see the exact same storm system. However, because it is cutting off just a hair different it is forcing it a little farther north, but ends up in the exact spot it should when it reaches the east coast. So this will keep most of the snow north of us. Also, KC friends (I am KC native and have a lot of blogger viewers from there) this one will keep the heaviest snow north of the metro. You may see a little on the backside but the heaviest stays north. KC!!!!!!!!!!! You have stole my snow all winter so I don’t mind saying this, lol. Back here at home, we will have a band of showers and a few thunderstorms on Saturday morning.
I am NOT expecting anything to strong or severe. Once these pass through, we will be mostly cloudy and windy by the afternoon with temperatures shooting into the lower 60s prior to the cold front to cool us down for Sunday. Check out my long range forecast below through the spring. You can see when the severe weather set-ups are. Quick tangent. Even though I offer long range forecast for multiple companies, I won’t keep that forecast from all of you as this is a service you deserve. If you have any questions please let me know. Have a great Friday!
So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.
Long range forecast through Early March:
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
Next Week: Cooling down for Sunday and Monday. Another weak system works in on Wednesday with a strong cold front to cool us down even more. A light wintry mix is possible on Wednesday. Mild temperatures for the end of the week with slight chances for rain by the weekend.
March 3rd-9th: This will be mainly a cool week. The first wave will be on Sunday and Monday with rain and snow chances. Another wave works in on Wednesday and Thursday, this will also give us rain and snow chances. Staying cool into the weekend.
March 10th-16th: A cool start to the week with a weak system on Sunday and Monday. This will give us slight chances for rain and snow. Mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday. Cooler for the rest of the week. Severe chances on Wednesday will be a 3 on a scale of 1-10.
March 17th-23rd: Mild with showers on Monday. Cooling back down with showers continuing until Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend with rain back in for the weekend.
March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Cooler for the weekend.
March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.
April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week
April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.
April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.
April 28th-May 4th: Warming up with strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of storms by the weekend.
May 5th-11th: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. Thunderstorms chances on Friday.
May 12th-18th: Mainly a warm week with slight chances for rain on Wednesday. However, thunderstorms on Friday, these could be strong to severe.
May 19th-25th: Thunderstorms, strong to severe on Sunday and Monday. Mainly a warm week with more thunderstorms on Friday.
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