Early Monday AM March 18th – Another quiet day lined up

Before rain chances sneak back in
Early Monday AM March 18th – Another quiet day lined up

Good early Monday morning, everyone. Hopefully, you all had a chance to enjoy the weekend. We certainly had some cold mornings to tangle with, but we were rewarded with some nice afternoons all across the area. As we head back to work and school today, it will be cold once again to start things off. We still have a weak disturbance passing across northern Missouri, but it’s not really doing anything for us. We’re cloudy to start Monday out with some echoes on the radar below, but the air near the surface is too dry to have anything reach the ground…

We kept things quiet this weekend and are set to do the same again for today because of our weather setup. At the jet-stream level, we have the core of the jet right on top of us. It’s also worth noting that we don’t have any systems immediately trying to sneak in from the northwest…

Early Monday AM March 18th – Another quiet day lined up

With nothing to sneak in and mess things up for today, we’ll just have the same weather story unfold in front of us once again. Even after a cold start, the dry air will quickly be warmed up with mostly sunny skies. That means highs will climb back into the upper 50s with a few spots close to 60 once again…

Early Monday AM March 18th – Another quiet day lined up

After Monday, that’s when the weather starts to get a little more active. Northwest of us in the Northern Rockies, we have a developing wave at the jet-stream level…

Early Monday AM March 18th – Another quiet day lined up

It’ll be a relatively weak wave, but it will pass through the area as we go into late Tuesday and Wednesday. This system won’t have much in the way of moisture to work with, but it will be enough for rain chances to sneak back in during this time frame…

Early Monday AM March 18th – Another quiet day lined up

While that wave won’t be impressive, the other side of the ridge shows more storm systems getting organized out in the Pacific…

Early Monday AM March 18th – Another quiet day lined up

Those won’t start trying to work in on Thursday. Thursday and Friday will serve as quiet days with highs climbing into the 60s. Very appropriate for those first 2 full days of the spring season. The first wave west of the Pacific Coast will work in as we head into Saturday and Sunday. It will start as rain chances Saturday before a little more warmth and instability could allow some t-storms for Sunday…

Early Monday AM March 18th – Another quiet day lined up

If you’re curious as to how we look for the rest of March and all the way into late May, Doug has you covered with his long-range forecast down below. Have a great Monday!


Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.

Long range forecast through Early March:


Next Week: Showers stick around early in the week with a few weak waves rolling through. Cooler temperatures for the middle of the week with another storm system with thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. We will have a slight severe threat on Friday.

March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.

April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week

April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.

April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.

April 28th-May 4th: Warming up with strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of storms by the weekend.

May 5th-11th: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. Thunderstorms chances on Friday.

May 12th-18th: Mainly a warm week with slight chances for rain on Wednesday. However, thunderstorms on Friday, these could be strong to severe.

May 19th-25th: Thunderstorms, strong to severe on Sunday and Monday. Mainly a warm week with more thunderstorms on Friday.





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