Early Monday AM February 11th – Fog and rain to start the new work/school week

Followed by a bit of an active week
Early Monday AM February 11th – Fog and rain to start the new work/school week

Good early Monday morning, everyone. We had a cold end to the weekend yesterday with highs only making it into the upper 30s in most spots. We will be a bit warmer today, but we’ll be fighting two issues throughout the day. We don’t have a lot of activity to speak of early this morning on the radar below…

The big issue for many of us to start the morning out will be the fog. Dense fog advisories have been in effect since yesterday evening with visibilities in many areas dropping to half a mile or less. This will be the main headache for us as we head back to work and school this morning…

Early Monday AM February 11th – Fog and rain to start the new work/school week

After we get past the fog, our next upper level low will work in from the Rocky Mountain range and bring better rain chance back into play…

Early Monday AM February 11th – Fog and rain to start the new work/school week

Even though we’re dealing with fog tonight, dew points continue to be in the middle to upper 30s. Even though the temperatures are matching the dew point, temperatures can’t drop below the dew point. That means everyone stays in the middle to upper 30s through the early morning hours…

Early Monday AM February 11th – Fog and rain to start the new work/school week

The south wind will continue to bring more moisture into play as it also warms us back into the middle to upper 40s this afternoon. As the wave out west kicks in, that will bring the rain chances in late this morning and into the afternoon…

Early Monday AM February 11th – Fog and rain to start the new work/school week

Before this wave departs, there may be a brief window for a little snow to mix in early Tuesday morning as temperatures drop. If any snow makes it here before the moisture and the wave clears out, we could see very minor snow accumulations. We’re going to stay quiet and cool Tuesday under mostly sunny skies. We’ll also stay quiet for Wednesday before another system sneaks in on Valentine’s Day. We may be mild on Valentine’s Day with highs around 60, but we could see rain chances sneak back in during the afternoon…

Early Monday AM February 11th – Fog and rain to start the new work/school week

Depending on how the system tracks as we turn colder on Friday, we could see any leftover moisture switch to snow for Friday morning…

Early Monday AM February 11th – Fog and rain to start the new work/school week

Beyond that, there are a few more waves for the coming weekend. While they may bring slight snow chances back into play, they’ll mainly keep us cold for next weekend. Don’t forget that Doug has your long-range forecast out through April down below.

Have a great Monday, everyone!

Nick

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, we are on a 50-52 day cycle. That means today’s weather is similar to 50-52 days ago and 50-52 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.

Long range forecast through April:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Another cold week with a moderate system on Tuesday with rain and snow chances. A weak system on Thursday with a few snow showers.

February 25th-March 2nd: A cool first half of the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week. A few showers on Monday with a big storm system brewing for the weekend.

March 3rd-9th: Rain and snow chances on Sunday with a strong system working through. Staying cool most of the week with rain and snow chances returning for Tuesday and Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend.

March 10th-16th: Moderate system on Sunday and Monday with rain possibly over to snow with colder temperatures working in. Staying cold the rest of the week with a few snow showers possible on Thursday.

March 17th-23rd: Mild with showers on Monday. Cooling back down with showers continuing until Wednesday. Mild temperatures back in for the weekend with rain back in for the weekend.

March 24th-30th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Coler for the weekend.

March 31st-April 6th: Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday. A stronger system on Friday and Saturday with thunderstorms, some could be strong to severe.

April 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, some could be strong. Cooling down the rest of the week.

April 14th-20th: A mild first half of the week with a cool second half of the week. Thunderstorms on Wednesday.

April 21st-27th: Thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday that could be strong to severe. Turning cooler through the middle of the week. Mild and dry the second half of the week.

Doug

#headypattern

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dheady@koamtv.com

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