Continued rain chances will keep us mild Thursday – Nick

We will have improving weather by this weekend, though

Good Wednesday evening, everyone. As advertised, we had a stormy start to our day with the line of rain and t-storms coming out of western and central Kansas. Thankfully, they were on a weakening trend as the line pushed eastward. When that line of t-storms fired up in western and central Kansas, wind speeds were pushing 80 miles an hour with some embedded tornadoes. As they worked through our area, we had a large tree go down around West 18th in Fort Scott and winds estimated at 60 mph in Hallowell this morning. Even after the rain cleared out for much of the area, it and the mostly cloudy skies kept temperatures from really warming up today. Unlike yesterdays lows near 50° and highs in the upper 70s, we started out in the middle 60s this morning and only topped out around 75°.


In terms of the storms from this morning, the bigger impact was more accumulating rainfall across much of the area. While amounts do vary across the area, the radar estimated average amounts rounds out to about an inch for our Wednesday.


While we saw quite a bit of rain from the last storm system and from today, we aren’t done with rain chances just yet. In fact, a flash flood watch is out for Newton, McDonald, Barry, Lawrence and Benton counties until Thursday evening at 7 o’clock.


The big reason why rain chances keep lining up is because our storm system hasn’t cleared out of the area. At the surface, you can see how the cold front is still parked across our southern counties. We’ll have to be patient until the backside of the system over Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas can clear out within the next few days.


That will happen when the upper-level setup undergoes a change on Friday. The last upper-level low that brought quite a bit of severe weather across Kansas and Oklahoma has lifted into the Northern Plains. What we’re watching for is the upper-level low coming out of northern Idaho. When that upper-level low comes our way on Friday, that’s what will clear our storm system out of here and leave us with a pretty good weekend.


The rain that we’re seeing will continue into our Thursday morning. By the AM drive, we’ll back things down to scattered showers under mostly cloudy skies. The rain will make sure most of us are off to a mild start for our Thursday. While most spots will start out around 62, some areas northwest of Joplin could drop into the upper 50s.


Once we get past the morning drive, we’ll hold on to mostly cloudy skies throughout the course of the day. Since we’ll back our rain chances down to scattered showers and a few t-storms during the day, temperatures will have a little more wiggle room to warm up throughout the day. After starting Thursday afternoon out with temperatures in the upper 60s, highs will top out around 74 in Joplin with surrounding areas topping out in the lower to middle 70s.


While we may see a bit of a break in the rain chances Thursday evening, we’ll have one last good batch of rain and t-storms head our way as we head toward early Friday morning. I have the Future Track posted below at midnight Friday. The first reason why is that the developing batch of rain and t-storms will be ahead of the backside of the system. Those could be some strong t-storms to work in early Friday morning. Second, the temperatures. Ahead of the approaching front, we’ll have our midnight highs in the lower to middle 60s.


Once we get behind the front, the northwest wind will start the drop into the middle to upper 50s for the Friday AM drive. We’ll also hold on to some scattered showers and a couple of t-storms to start the day out.


As we work throughout the rest of our Friday, the departing system will mean skies clearing out throughout the day. We’ll also get rid of the rain chances throughout the day as well. While that will be a definite improvement, temperatures should stay in the upper 50s during the afternoon.


While it will be chilly to almost cool for Friday Night Football, we will be dry for the games and other outdoor plans. However, it wouldn’t be surprising if wet football fields become an issue for the upcoming games since rain totals by Friday could total between a quarter of an inch to 2 inches on average.


The Future Track below shows how the jet stream setup will look for Saturday and Sunday. With the jet stream nearby and mostly sunny skies locked in, we’ll enjoy highs in the middle 60s on Saturday and lower to middle 70s on Sunday. We’ll also have some cool mornings with lows in the lower 40s on Saturday and middle 40s on Sunday.


While we’ll keep quiet under partly sunny skies for Monday, we’ll see temperatures push back into the middle 70s to get the new work/school week underway. Once we get into Tuesday and Wednesday, you can see another wave ready to work in by then. We’ll see that bring isolated t-storms for Tuesday and scattered t-storms for Wednesday. That will also bring temperatures down from the upper 70s on Tuesday into the middle 60s by Wednesday.


Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below. Have a good night and a great Thursday!



October 21st-23rd:  We’ll be dry for the rest of the week with temperatures back in mild territory once again.

October 24th-30th:  A mild start with rain chances on Monday.  Turning cooler or chilly the rest of the work week but warming up a bit by the weekend.

October 31st-November 6th:  Cool with a few showers for Halloween.  The week looks great with mild temperatures with rain chances by the weekend.