A Look at the Tropics – September 1st

A Look at the Tropics – September 1st
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Tropical Storm Florence 10 PM CST Advisory September 1st

A look at the Tropics on this September 1st continues to show a decent amount of activity in both the waters of the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific. Starting in the Atlantic, we have Tropical Storm Florence with sustained wind speeds of 50 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1000 millibars. With the latest advisory, the system looks to undergo some minor changes as we continue into the coming week. Slow strengthening is expected as we work into the new week, but it should stay at Tropical Storm status as it continues to stay over open water. Elsewhere, we have disorganized rain and t-storms associated with a tropical wave over the Bahamas and the Turks & Caicos highlighted in orange. While rapid organization or strengthening isn’t anticipated over the next few days, environmental conditions will allow better strengthening/development when this system moves into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 5 days. The odds of that wave becoming a depression over the next 5 days sit at 50%.

In the Eastern Pacific, we have an area of low pressure (in yellow) forecast to develop south of the Mexican coast within the next few days. With gradual development possible through the middle of next week, this future wave will have a 30% chance over the next 5 days of becoming a tropical depression. In the meantime, we have Tropical Depression Seventeen-E south of the Baja Peninsula. The 10 PM Advisory suggests rapid strengthening as we work through Labor Day and into next week. It’ll say away from land through Thursday, but we’ll keep an eye on this system. Hurricane Norman, at last check, is a strong Category 2 storm with wind speeds of 105 mph and a minimum pressure of 970 millibars. No major strengthening is expected with Norman as we go through the rest of the weekend and it’s forecast to weaken early next week. In terms of land, Norman looks to stay away from the Hawaiian Islands as we go into the middle of next week.