A Look at the Tropics – September 18th

A Look at the Tropics – September 18th
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Tropical Disturbance 1 in Eastern Pacific - September 18th

A look at the Tropics on this September 18th continues to show an overall calm trend in both the Atlantic and Pacific. Even though we’re still much calmer than last week, we do have a few areas we’re watching. In the Eastern Pacific, we still have a broad and elongated low centered around the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. Despite the interaction with land at the southern tip of the peninsula, it still continues to produce widespread and disorganized rain and t-storms. For this evening, the size of the system & its interaction with land will prevent any development. As it works into the Gulf of California over the next few days, the environment should give this low a chance to become a tropical depression before it works into northwestern Mexico. The odds of this happening over the next 5 days currently sit at 40%. Another disturbance is located 800 miles southwest of the Baja Peninsula. The environment that the disturbance is working through will be conducive for tropical development as it continues northwestward. The odds of this becoming a tropical depression over the next 5 days sit at 40%.

Over in the Atlantic, we only have one active depression while the rest of the Ocean doesn’t have any developing systems. Tropical Depression Joyce continues to hold on as it sits 490 miles south of the Azores. It has maximum sustained winds observed at 30 mph with a minimum pressure of 1010 millibars. The current forecast continues to have Joyce wander over the open Atlantic and weaken to a remnant low by late tonight and into Wednesday.