A Look at the Tropics – September 17th

A Look at the Tropics – September 17th
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Eastern Pacific 5-Day Outlook - September 17th

A look at the Tropics on this September 17th thankfully continues to show little activity compared to where we were last week. In the Eastern Pacific, we still have a broad and elongated low south of the Baja Peninsula. For the time being, it continues to produce widespread and disorganized rain and t-storms. The large size of the system and close interaction with land will limit any development over the next few days. By Wednesday or Thursday, that could become a tropical depression as it works into a better environment. The odds of this wave becoming a depression over the next 5 days sit fairly high at 60%.

Over in the Atlantic, we still have Tropical Depression Joyce holding on. It was located 300 miles south of the Azores with a minimum central pressure of 1008 millibars. The forecast track continues to have Joyce wander across the eastern Atlantic and eventually weakening to a remnant low Tuesday. Back in the Caribbean Sea, we still have the remnants of Isaac (highlighted in yellow) that we’re watching. As of this evening, it’s a disorganized area of rain and t-storms stretching from Jamaica and Cuba into the Caribbean. Even though locally heavy rainfall will remain possible over the next few days, the environment does not look conducive at all to allow this to re-develop. The odds of that happening over the next 5 days remain at 0%.