A look at the Tropics – October 14, 2019

Quite a bit of activity in the Atlantic

A look at the Tropics on this October 14, 2019 shows quite a bit of activity in the Atlantic while a potential wave could develop in the eastern Pacific.

Southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, a large low was getting better organized with ongoing shower and t-storm activity. The wave is already in a favorable environment to keep on developing. Even if this wave skirts close to the eastern Cabo Verde Islands over the next 2 to 5 days, the odds of this turning into a tropical depression or storm sit very high at 90%. The second wave, accompanied by a low pressure center, was located east of the Lesser Antilles. Even with a slight uptick in organized rain and t-storms, upper level winds in that part of the Atlantic should hinder any additional meaningful development. The odds of this wave developing over the next 5 days sit very low at 20%. Another broad low was located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea with disorganized rain and t-storms. While this wave will work over parts of Belize, Guatemala and Mexico over the next few days, some development appears possible once it emerges over the Bay of Campeche. Given this setup, the odds of this wave developing over the next 5 days sit very low at 20%.

Compared to the Atlantic, the Eastern Pacific isn’t quite as active. We have a broad low located south of the El Savador coast producing disorganized rain and t-storms. The environment will continue to allow gradual development before any proximity to land later in the week puts that to a halt. This wave a has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression with the odds sitting at 80%. We’ll continue to keep an eye on the Tropics.