A Look at the Tropics – August 28th

A Look at the Tropics – August 28th
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Tropical Storm Miriam August 28th 4 PM CST Advisory

A look at the Tropics on this August 28th shows us quite a bit of activity to keep an eye on. In the Atlantic, the yellow highlighted area shows where a tropical wave is looking to move off the African coast by Thursday. The environment could allow for some development by the end of the week, but first impressions don’t favor rapid strengthening to a tropical depression. The odds of this wave developing into a depression over the next 5 days sit low at 20%. In the eastern Pacific, we have a low that’s expected to form off the Mexican coast over the next few days. With gradual development possible by the end of the week, the odds of the wave becoming a depression over the next 5 days sit low at 30%.

In terms of active systems, Lane is barely holding on as a tropical depression and it should be gone by Wednesday or Thursday. With that said, we’ll focus on 2 systems in the Pacific. We have a new tropical depression south of the Baja Peninsula named Sixteen-E. The 4 PM CST Advisory had wind speeds clocked at 35 mph and a minimum pressure of 1004 millibars. As it continues to move west away from the Mexican coast, rapid strengthening is expected to allow this to become Hurricane Norman by Thursday morning. The current forecast track continues to keep the system away from land while it strengthens, but we’ll still keep an eye on what will become Norman. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Miriam continues to churn east of the Hawaiian Islands. The 4 PM CST Advisory places Miriam 1,295 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii with wind speeds of 60 mph and a minimum pressure of 1000 millibars. The current forecast keeps Miriam away from the Islands, but shows some strengthening is possible before it begins to weaken on Friday. While no impact to land is expected, we’ll continue to keep an eye on Miriam over the next several days.